The bundeswehr transformation center writes that oil will become one decisive factor in determining the new landscape of international relations. Security implications of peak oil on germany publish. An important result is that oil demand will peak around 2030, at fewer than 100 million barrels per day in this scenario. The bundeswehr transformation center writes that oil will become. She and a colleague wanted to come to uppsala to discuss peak oil with me. These nations are using the advantages resulting from this to expand the scope. This would create room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing forms of government. Complete english translation of german military analysis of peak oil. The article that moved the debate into the public view appeared in scientific american. Global macroeconomic effects are comparable to the 20082009 crisis. Highlights national and sectoral economic effects of peak oil until 2020 are modelled. This week a study on peak oil by a german military think tank was leaked on the. Department of energy, that warned of the risks posed by peak oil. The original german document 125 pgs was approved for public release last november, yet neither the complete german version nor the partial english translation has attracted interest from mainstream media.
Peak oil and the german government the shift project. The oil drum german military study warns of potential. But they would argue that this makes no difference as that inevitable event will take place within months or years. The political and economic impacts of peak oil on germany have now been studied for the first time in depth. Some institutions claim that peak oil will occur as. Summary of german armed forces peak oil study energy skeptic. However, leadership is something on which the army prides itself.
As of 2020, peak oil forecasts range from the early 2020s to the 2040s, irrelevant citation depending on economics and how governments respond to global warming. Peak oil could do serious damage to the global economy. The authors confirm multiple views on peak oil timing and concede that there will be peak oil eventually. The relative importance of the oilproducing nations in the international system is growing. The peak oil issue is so politically explosive that its remarkable when an institution like the bundeswehr, the german military, uses the term peak oil at all. The document shows that the government of germany is carefully studying the issue of peak oil, and is aware of the potential for serious consequences as oil production declines.
Peak oil is described as the implications of peak oil at a global and national level. Since this study is mainly focused on understanding causeeffect relations following such a peak oil situation, it is not necessary to specify a precise point in time. Most people judge peak oil concerns by the prevailing oil price. Complete english translation of german military analysis. It is a fact that oil is finite and that there is a peak oil. Oct 27, 2012 this, at any rate, is the basic idea behind peak oil. A leaked study by the german military reveals that the bundeswehr is taking the possibility of peak oil the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, leading. Armed forces, capabilities and technologies in the 21st. The price elasticity of oil demand is low resulting in high price fluctuations.
Oil is the lifeblood of industrial civilization 80 million barrelsday, barrelssec, 1 cubic mileyear highly energydense easy to transport, store moves goods and people allows us to fly there will never be a batteryoperated jet plane digs huge holes and puts up huge buildings ballooned our food supply fertilize, cultivate, irrigate, transport. The internal draft document leaked on the internet. This paper discusses the impact of the peaking and then decline in world oil productioncommonly known as peak oilon the australian army from a raise, train and sustain perspective. Peak denial about peak oil james quinn seeking alpha. The aim is to find evidence about the awareness of peak oil to the interviewees, about how the german bundeswehr will manage the transition to a postfossil army and about current and future strategies to ensure security of supply for oil. The study is reminiscent of the hirsch report, commissioned by the u. Parts of the population could comprehend the upheaval triggered by peak oil as a general systemic crisis.
This week a study on peak oil by a german military think tank was leaked on the internet. Unconventional oil and increasing production costs. Medium term economic effects of peak oil today ulrike lehr christian lutz. The assessment made by the bundeswehr transformation centres analysts is the most alarming one. Fragmentation of the affected population is likely and could in extreme cases lead to open. Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials ian chapmann business school, university of cumbria, carlisle, united kingdom highlights key advocatesopponents of peak oil reveal their biases. Reserve calculation methods are considered, showing. Must is swedens military intelligence and security service m ilitara u nderrattelse och s akerhe t stjansten. Nonconventional oils viability is critiqued and found wanting. The crude oil expert steffen bukold has evaluated and summarized the findings of the bundeswehr study. Business calls for urgent action on oil crunch threat to uk economy. Leaked study on peak oil warns of severe global energy crisis.
From peak oil, however, this level will irreversibly decline in the long term. The german military is freaked out by prospect of peak oil. Sep 03, 2011 the document shows that the government of germany is carefully studying the issue of peak oil, and is aware of the potential for serious consequences as oil production declines. Oil shortage strongly affects transport and indirectly all other sectors. When comparing projections of worldwide oil supply of lbst 2010, which assumes that oil production has recently peaked, to projections of oil demand from e. On monday, september 29, the wall street journal wsj published a story called why peak oil predictions havent come true. Last week the bundeswehr posted an english version 112 pgs of their extraordinary analysis of peak oil. The impact of peak oil on the australian army, especially a peak within the next few years, has the potential to be tumultuous. Peak oil theory memorial university of newfoundland.
Uk industry taskforce on peak oil and energy security itpoes study on peak oil was released. Ken deffeyes, a geologist at princeton and the author of hubberts peak. Military study warns of a potentially drastic oil crisis. The study isnt about positioning the problem on a timeline, but instead about the consequences of a peak. Despite repeated government assurances to the contrary, the global oil supply doesnt seem to be growing much anymore. Bundeswehr transformation center states105 that some probability that peak oil will occur around.
In fact, the bundeswehr centre study says that oil production may peak this year. They believe that the peak oil point will be reached by 2010 and will be followed by a permanent and terminal decline of oil supplies, and consequently by a sharp rise in the price of oil. Sep 09, 2010 a leaked study by the german military reveals that the bundeswehr is taking the possibility of peak oil the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, leading. Security implications of peak oil on germany publish your. How peak oil found me while on a trip to visit my parents in 2006, i picked up a book at the airport, the long emergency, by james howard kunstler.
The iea report also shows that despite oil industry investment trebling in real terms since 2000 an increase of around 200300%, this has translated into an oil supply increase of just 12%. Introduction perhaps the sentiments contained in the following pages are not yet sufficiently fashionable to procure them general favor. Summary of german armed forces peak oil study peak energy. The document shows that the german government is closely studying the issue of peak oil, and is aware of the potential for serious consequences as oil production declines. Now that a complete translation is available, it is hoped that media throughout. Peak oil security policy implications of scarce resources. Jan 17, 2014 the iea report also shows that despite oil industry investment trebling in real terms since 2000 an increase of around 200300%, this has translated into an oil supply increase of just 12%. Peak energy, climate change, and the collapse of global civilization. Peak oil is a phenomenon that has received little mainstream attention even though the potential consequences of its untimely arrival could be considerable.
Preparations for the onset of peak oil will require momentous change and pose considerable leadership challenges on the army. A study by a german military think tank has analyzed how peak oil might change the global economy. Peak oil sicherheitspolitische implikationen knapper. One of the interesting facets about the peak oil debate is the nature of the many believers in peak oil. Since this study is mainly focussed on understanding causeeffect relations following such a peak oil situation, it is not necessary to specify a precise point in time. Leaked german military study warns of peak oil crisis. The story is written as if there are only two possible outcomes. Peak oil is the theorized point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline. This, at any rate, is the basic idea behind peak oil. Some institutions claim that peak oil will occur as early as around 2010.
Sep 02, 2010 the authors confirm multiple views on peak oil timing and concede that there will be peak oil eventually. Roger bentley, the secretary of the association for the study of peak oil and gas believes the peak will be between 2010 and 2020. The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has turned peak oil the moment when demand exceeds supply from a distant threat to a more immediate risk. Jun 25, 2014 one of the interesting facets about the peak oil debate is the nature of the many believers in peak oil.
Wsj gets it wrong on why peak oil predictions havent. Since peak oil challenges the status quo, peak oils proponents have been subjected to an unfortunate backlash by established interests. Bundeswehr transformation centre, future analysis branch. Why military and intelligence agencies are peeking at. The report is so far only available in german, and while ich spreche ein wenig deutsch i speak a little german, i am not fluent enough to capture the essence of the report. Structural shifts in fundamentals drive a lower demand outlook underlying these outcomes, the mckinsey global institute mgi sees reduced macroeconomic growth for the coming decades, including changes to the structure of. The contemporary debate over peak oil has its roots in longstanding disputes between resource optimists and resource pessimists that can be traced at least as far back as malthus 1.
The document concludes that the public must be made aware of peak oil implications so that preparation for peak is accelerated immediately. Country effects depend on oil imports and productivity, and economic structures. They expect major consequences with a delay of 1530 years after the peak has hit. The idea behind peak oil is that, as a fossil fuel in limited supply, eventually we will reach a point where oil production hits its maximum capability and then begins to decline. But they would argue that this makes no difference as that inevitable event will take place within months or. A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the uk for peak oil. Summary of german armed forces peak oil study peak. Why military and intelligence agencies are peeking at peak oil. These disputes are underpinned by the differing perspectives of natural and social scientists. It is a fact, however, that oil is finite and that there is a peak oil. Complete english translation of german military analysis of.
German military study warns of potential energy crisis the oil drum. But a military study currently circulating on the german blogosphere goes further. The 1970s saw the first signs of peak oil and its consequences in the decades ahead. Peak oil, peak energy mother nature bats last martin sereno 1 feb 2011 orig. Between 1981 and 2005, world oil production grew at a steady pace of about 1. The peak oil version of what to expect from oil limits is correct, or. My only previous interaction with must had been to watch actors portray its agents in swedish films. The ramifications of peak oil are so serious, one of george w.